Oscars 2025: Predictions, Preferences, and Snubs
I'm rooting for anything not Emilia Pérez
It’s me, your friendly neighborhood Academy Awards enthusiast, and I have some thoughts.
I’ll spare you my long diatribe about how much Emilia Pérez sucks and my conspiracy theories over why it’s getting so much praise this awards season (you can’t convince me that Jacques Audiard doesn’t have dirt on somebody important in the industry), because I know what you’re really interested in are my Oscar predictions and thoughts on who should have been nominated. Well, wait no more, my babies.
I do want to preface this post by saying that I’ll only include the categories that I have particularly strong and/or more educated opinions on. I haven’t seen any of the shorts or documentaries yet, for example, so I obviously can’t give an educated opinion on any predictions or share any insight on who I thought might have gotten snubbed. It’s for the best, really, because I can’t imagine that anyone is chomping at the bit to know what I think about the Best Sound category (in short, Between the Temples was snubbed!!).
Without further ado, here are my Extremely Important and Very Correct Oscar Thoughts. I’m opening up the comments on this one as a treat, so feel free to agree with me and shower my opinions in praise.
Actor in a Leading Role
Adrien Brody, The Brutalist
Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown
Colman Domingo, Sing Sing
Ralph Fiennes, Conclave
Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice
Prediction: If you had asked me over the summer who I thought was a lock for this category, I would have said this was Colman Domingo’s award to lose. Now that more Oscar heavy-hitters have been released and the Golden Globes have given us a potential taste of what’s to come, this race is a lot closer than I would have expected. I’m thinking Adrien Brody will narrowly take this one.
Who I Want to Win: I’d love to be pleasantly surprised by a Colman Domingo win here.
Snub(s): Yes, I know Sebastian Stan was nominated, but it was for the wrong damn film! A Different Man was one of my favorites from 2024—talk about a film that’s wholly original and unlike anything I’ve ever seen (ahem). I’m relieved the Academy at least had the good sense to nominate A Different Man for Makeup & Hairstyling, but I’m bitter and annoyed over its other egregious snubs. I’m sure his nomination for The Apprentice is more a result of timing more than anything, and I’m sure he’s great in it (haven’t seen it yet! I’m a little scared to tbh!) but what he was able to deliver in A Different Man was something truly stunning and bold and unique.
I also will probably talk about Ghostlight until I’m blue in the face, so apologies in advance if my raving about it gets annoying, but while I’m not surprised that it was completely overlooked by audiences and critics and the Academy, I am bummed about it. I never lost hope for a last-minute miracle for this little indie that could. The film is anchored by a subtle and moving performance from its lead, Keith Kupferer.
Actor in a Supporting Role
Yura Borisov, Anora
Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain
Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown
Guy Pearce, The Brutalist
Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice
Prediction: Kieran Culkin feels like the clear frontrunner, and I for one cannot wait for his twitchy, potentially obscenity-laden acceptance speech.
Who I Want to Win: I really enjoyed Guy Pearce’s performance in The Brutalist, and I’m thrilled to see him nominated. Any other year I’d probably be rooting for him, but as a lifelong Culkinhead (Macaulay was my first celebrity crush) my heart truly is with Kieran Culkin.
Snub(s): I’m so stoked that Clarence Maclin from Sing Sing is included among the nominees for Adapted Screenplay, but man I was really pulling for a surprise Best Supporting Actor nomination for him too. What an incredible full-circle moment that would have been! I would have immediately cried! Academy, you boofed it. Still, I’m thrilled for him and his success, and I can’t wait to see him strut that red carpet.
Actress in a Leading Role
Cynthia Erivo, Wicked
Karla Sofía Gascón, Emilia Pérez
Mikey Madison, Anora
Demi Moore, The Substance
Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here
Prediction: Similar to the Lead Actor category, I was convinced for almost this entire year that this was Mikey Madison’s win all the way. She had been getting a ton of buzz for her performance right out of the gate, and when I finally saw Anora, I got what the buzz was about and was fully on board. Now, though, it seems like Demi Moore is running away with it.
Who I Want to Win: I mean, who could be mad at a Demi Moore win? Certainly not me!
Snub(s): I feel like if we were still living in a quirky 2006 Little Miss Sunshine, Juno-ass indie little world, June Squibb in Thelma would have nabbed a surprise nomination here. And rightfully so! She’s 95 fucking years old. And she’s funny and bright and sharp as ever in her first-ever leading role. I feel like the Academy isn’t trying hard enough to tell a good story with their nominations, and I think that’s at least part of the reason why the general public is just flat-out disinterested in these awards. People love an underdog! People love seeing a long-overlooked figure finally getting their recognition (see: Demi Moore!). People love a charming grandma! Why must I think of everything?
UPDATE: Now that I’ve seen Mike Leigh’s wonderful, absolutely gutting Hard Truths, I’m astonished that Marianne Jean-Baptiste didn’t scoop up a nomination. Her performance is fierce but controlled, hardened but vulnerable. The pain and exhaustion of her character was palpable, I felt it lingering in my stomach long after the movie had ended. She managed to bring a depth and sense of empathy for a character who would be deeply unlikable and irredeemable in less capable hands. Marianne Jean-Baptiste is my Best Actress of 2024, hands down, do not argue with me.
Actress in a Supporting Role
Monica Barbaro, A Complete Unknown
Ariana Grande, Wicked
Felicity Jones, The Brutalist
Isabella Rossellini, Conclave
Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez
Prediction: It’s looking like Zoe Saldaña may run away with this one, I fear. Zoe, it’s nothing personal, I actually quite like you, it’s just that… this movie is Ass.
Who I Want to Win: I’m fairly underwhelmed with this category, and honestly this category is a whole mess. We’ve got Zoe Saldaña and Ariana Grande who are more like co-leads in their respective films rather than supporting actresses. Then there’s Isabella Rossellini who, while I adore her, was barely in Conclave. I feel like Monica Barbaro and Felicity Jones are the only ones who truly qualify as supporting actresses, and out of those two I’d go with Felicity Jones, but overall I don’t feel strongly one way or the other here. What the hell, give it to Grande.
Snub(s): While it was ultimately a middle-of-the-road film for me, I do think Jodie Comer’s performance in The Bikeriders was overlooked here. She and that beautifully blue collar Chicago accent blew me away. She was the heart and soul of that film, a film which desperately needed that heart and soul. Also, where the hell is Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor for Nickel Boys? And Joan Chen for Didi!
Animated Feature Film
Flow
Inside Out 2
Memoir of a Snail
Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
The Wild Robot
Prediction: I find it so satisfying that Disney and Pixar used to be the juggernauts of this category, but now it feels more like an even playing field, or possibly even actively stacked against Disney-Pixar. Inside Out 2 was a fine enough sequel, but it pales in comparison to its predecessor, and while I haven’t seen Flow yet, I’ve seen enough glowing reviews to deduce that it’s got a great shot to win here.
Who I Want to Win: I loved Memoir of a Snail and would love to see it take home the prize, but also if it didn’t win… I get it. I could see its darker themes being a turnoff for Academy voters. Ultimately I’m cool with any of these nominees winning.
Snub(s): Could you imagine if I said, like, The Garfield Movie? Nah, but really, I haven’t seen enough animated films this year to really have an opinion on any possible snubs.
Cinematography
The Brutalist (Lol Crawley)
Dune: Part Two (Greig Fraser)
Emilia Pérez (Paul Guilhaume)
Maria (Ed Lachman)
Nosferatu (Jarin Blaschke)
Prediction: Ugh. Ugh ugh ugh UGH. I’m so mad about one particular snub in this category I don’t even want to talk about it. The Brutalist, I guess.
Who I Want to Win: See previous answer.
Snub(s): NICKEL. BOYS. Like are you kidding me? Is this a fucking joke to you, Academy? Jomo Fray, I am so sorry you’re not being recognized for your beautiful, astonishing, groundbreaking work on this film. This was one category I felt particularly strong about, and when I realized Nickel Boys hadn’t been nominated I honestly felt deflated. I know it’s silly to be so invested, and I know ultimately none of this matters, and hopefully Jomo Fray is a way more mature and grounded person than I am to simply not give a shit. But it feels like at this point the Academy almost knows they are playing in my face with their nominations. I’m dumbfounded by this. I’m upset!!!
Directing:
Anora (Sean Baker)
The Brutalist (Brady Corbet)
A Complete Unknown (James Mangold)
Emilia Pérez (Jacques Audiard)
The Substance (Coralie Fargeat)
Prediction: This category is giving me a false sense of “anything could happen,” and I can almost see the award going to any of these directors, but it’s gotta be Corbet, right?
Who I Want to Win: I wouldn’t be upset by a Brady Corbet win here, but I wouldn’t be terribly moved, either. I kind of want to see Coralie Fargeat take it just out of spite.
Snub(s): This year more than maybe any other year has me convinced that if we’re going to open up Best Picture to 10 nominees, we should expand other categories, too. It makes no damn sense to nominate a film for Best Picture if the other key elements that make that film the best aren’t also recognized. That said, RaMell Ross for Nickel Boys, along with the cinematography category, is one of the more egregious snubs this awards season. Also, is the Academy allergic to nominating more than one woman at a time? Annie Baker’s debut, Janet Planet, was masterfully directed and its lack of recognition overall feels like an insult to me, personally.
Music (Original Score):
The Brutalist (Daniel Blumberg)
Conclave (Volker Bertelmann)
Emilia Pérez (Clément Ducol and Camille)
Wicked (John Powell and Stephen Schwartz)
The Wild Robot (Kris Bowers)
Prediction: I noted in my Letterboxd review that the score for The Brutalist was one of the best I’ve heard in years, and I stand by it! I haven’t caught Conclave or The Wild Robot yet to compare, but I do think Daniel Blumberg’s score is going to be hard to beat here.
Who I Want to Win: The Brutalist, clearly.
Snub(s): It should come as no surprise that I, along with seemingly the entire Online community, am outraged that Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross were not nominated for the Challengers score. I’m not as mad at the fact that Challengers was completely overlooked (I can see arguments for a directing or cinematography nod, but otherwise I wasn’t as hot on the performances or the script), but the score undoubtedly ruled. It’s my go-to workout soundtrack! You listen to this score and you want to both have a steamy threesome and run through a brick wall. Maybe this score was simply too powerful, and it made the Academy too horny. Maybe they were simply too afraid of the debauchery that would erupt in the crowd should they play any portion of the soundtrack during the ceremony. Frankly, the Oscars could stand to be a lot more horny.
Writing (Adapted Screenplay):
A Complete Unknown (James Mangold and Jay Cocks)
Conclave (Peter Straughan)
Emilia Pérez (Jacques Audiard; in collaboration with Thomas Bidegain, Léa Mysius and Nicolas Livecchi)
Nickel Boys (RaMell Ross & Joslyn Barnes)
Sing Sing (Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar; Story by Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar, Clarence Maclin, John "Divine G" Whitfield)
Prediction: Girl, I don’t know. I’m scared. If this goes to Emilia Pérez I might genuinely jump off a bridge.
Who I Want to Win: I’m rooting for anybody not Emilia Pérez.
Snub(s): Queer!! Come on, Luca Guadagnino has given us so much this year, one of his films should get something, for crying out loud.
Writing (Original Screenplay):
Anora (Sean Baker)
The Brutalist (Brady Corbet, Mona Fastvold)
A Real Pain (Jesse Eisenberg)
September 5 (Moritz Binder, Tim Fehlbaum, Alex David)
The Substance (Coralie Fargeat)
Prediction: First of all, I’m sorry, but what even is September 5 doing here all of a sudden? Has anyone even seen September 5? Anyway. The Brutalist, probably.
Who I Want to Win: Jesse Eisenberg winning for A Real Pain would be A Real Delight, if only to see what kind of acceptance speech he’d give. Plus, I liked this movie a lot! The script was great! I also wouldn’t mind a win for Sean Baker here.
Snub(s): Oh don’t even get me started. We had a wealth of great original scripts this year. A Different Man by Aaron Schimberg. Janet Planet by Annie Baker. Between the Temples by Nathan Silver and C. Mason Wells. Ghostlight by Kelly O’Sullivan. Didi by Sean Wang. Thelma by Josh Margolin. Bird by Andrea Arnold. And honestly? Want to get real for a second? Megan Park for My Old Ass. Yeah, I said it!! I said the Academy should recognize a film called My Old Ass and you better believe I meant it!!
Best Picture:
Anora
The Brutalist
A Complete Unknown
Conclave
Dune: Part Two
Emilia Pérez
I’m Still Here
Nickel Boys
The Substance
Wicked
Prediction: The Brutalist, which is fine, I guess. I feel like I’m giving the impression that I didn’t like The Brutalist. But I actually really loved it, I swear! It’s just that… it’s a very safe, obvious choice. And it feels very 2023. Do we really need another Oppenheimer moment? I’m bored, Academy, I’m simply bored!
Who I Want to Win: Of these choices, I think I’d be most pleased with a Nickel Boys win first and foremost. Anora second. The Brutalist third.
Snub(s): Do I really need to say it again? GHOSTLIGHT!! Genuinely one of the most heartfelt, original, and earnest movies of the year and it simply hasn’t gotten enough eyeballs on it. Also, considering the amount of nominations it got, I’m shocked that Sing Sing didn’t get nominated for the Big One. Two really special films with similar themes that deserved better. I wrote about both of them previously, and I’ve removed the paywall on that post in the hopes of getting both films more exposure. If even one person sees either of these movies because I’ve talked about them, then I’ll consider that a win—a win far more rewarding than that lil bald eight pound statuette.